The Fallacy of Quebec Separation by 50% + 1

April 2, 2006

Quebec separatists have argued ad nauseum that a referendum vote with a bare majority, that is 50% + 1 of eligible voters who chose to exercise their right to vote in that referendum, is sufficient to break up Canada. What’s even more tragic and regrettable is that every single political party in Quebec, “federalist”, nationalist, or separatist, agreed on this falsified and fraudulent “logic”.

This is a fallacy. An event as monumental as the break-up of a country, preceded by the formation of a new country, cannot be decided by way of a simple majority. This does not reflect the will of the people, as it trivializes and renders meaningless the desire of a strong minority of Quebeckers to remain part of Canada. Furthermore, such a slim majority could reverse itself immediately afterwards; it is vulnerable, tenuous, superficial, and unstable. How can such a temporary state trigger the break-up of a country? It is a nothing more than a technicality, and not the reflection of the people’s will.

The above two paragraphs contribute nothing to the debate from the federalist side. A Posteriori is about bringing fresh ideas and perspectives to either old or new debates. Therefore, it is my duty as a passionate blogger to bring not only a fresh perspective on this age-old debate, but an absolutely irrefutable argument against 50% + 1 separation:

Suppose I were to acquire a magical power allowing me to prevent all but 100 Quebeckers from voting in the next referendum. Suppose further that I were to invoke this power the day of the referendum. Out of about five to six million eligible Quebec voters, only 100, a tiny percentage of the voting population, exercises the voting right of referendum day. Let’s suppose that 51 of those 100 voters vote in the affirmative, that is “yes” for separation. How would the “Quebec consensus” on the margin of the allowable margin of victory respond?

Well, according to their rhetoric, these 51 votes, literally 51 votes, would be sufficient to trigger separation. The vast majority of voters who were prevented from voting on referendum night, that is, well over 5 million of them, would have absolutely no say whatsoever in the future of the province. This is ludicrous!

The same government, the “federalist” Quebec Liberals, who stipulated that 35% of all eligible voters in de-merging municipalities vote in the affirmative to get back the cities that were unilaterally taken from them against their will, argue that a simple 51 voters out of a 100 can break up my country. The hypocrisy of the Quebec political class is absolutely beyond belief!

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