How did I do in 2008?
January 13, 2009Let’s review my record for 2008 predictions:
1) Cheap Linux PC’s will take 10% of the U.S. PC market, mostly at the expense of Windows.
Although Linux has between 30 and 50% of the netbook market, I was WAY off on this one.
2) Java will become 100% open source, both Java 7 and Java 6 (with compensations for encumberences). Most Linux distros will come with OpenJDK loaded by default in place GCJ and GNU Classpath.
This has largely happened, so I’ll take credit for this one.
3) The iPhone will handily surpasse Steve Jobs’ goal of 1% of the mobile phone market.
This definitely happened. The iPhone is among the top sellers in the smartphone market.
4) A fully implemented version of Soy Latte will be added to the OpenJDK ports, along with a complete Swing implementation as other developers contribute to Landon Fuller’s work.
The bsdports project was started last year. Still, it’s very young and there’s no Swing implementation yet, so I could probably give myself 0.5 out of 1 on this one.
5) Microsoft will completely scrap Windows Genuine Advantage completely out of fear of Mac and Linux adaption, but this does not reverse Windows’ fortunes.
This definitely didn’t happen.
6) Apple and RIAA labels will agree on selling DRM-free music on iTunes in exchange for limited pricing flexibility, which Apple will cave in on. The only remaining non-DRM holdout, Sony, will start selling its digital music DRM-free.
I was totally right about this one. Unfortunately, it happened in early 2009, so I can’t claim this prediction 
7) Apple and Google will join forces to clean up at the upcoming U.S. 700 Mhz wireless auction, putting massive pressure on U.S. telcos and cell phone service providers to become more competitive.
This did not happen.
8) Client-side Java will finally take off, with the help of the Consumer JRE in the Java 6 N Update. Swing and Applets become the new vanguards of rich GUI applications and rich internet applications for non-media business applications that require rich GUI functionality. Flex market share, as well as AJAX toolkits such as Ext JS will decline as a result.
Hasn’t happened, at least not yet.
9) Apple open source WebKit will gain feature parity with Firefox, and in some cases, surpass it. Firefox mobile efforts will fail to gain traction.
I nailed this one, but to be fair, it was an easy prediction to make.
10) OpenSolaris’s Project Indiana will be complete and will surpass Ubuntu in reliability, hardware support, and ease of use. Features such as the superior Solaris kernel, DTrace and ZFS will make it a favourite among developers.
I was totally off on this one.
So, I get 2.5 out of 10 for 2008. Unfortunately, I can’t claim the Apple DRM prediction, which would have given me 3.5 out of 10.
